Pity the studio distribution executive who has to explain why the Christmas-New Year’s corridor is such a challenge to predict, depending on when a movie opens in relation to the actual holiday.
This year, 20th Century Studios and Disney open James Cameron‘s Avatar: Fire and Ash on the Friday before Christmas. The sci-epic is tracking to open domestically in the $95 million to $105 million range, versus the $134 million earned by 2023 Christmas entry Avatar: The Way of the Water.
One key fact: Way of Water had nine full days of play before the actual holiday fell, meaning it had more time to compete with consumers rushing to complete holiday preparations. Fire & Ash has six days.
The first Avatar was grilled mercilessly in 2009 when opening to $77 million, but the angst soon ended as the film picked up momentum on it way to becoming the top-grossing film of all time at the worldwide box office with an astounding $2.9 billion, not adjusted for inflation. It still holds that honor.
Fire and Ash is opening in virtually every corner of the globe and is projecting a global debut in the $330 million to $340 million range (that compares to $440 million for the sequel). That includes China, where Cameron is a cult hero, though the Chinese box office is no longer huge for American movies. One recent major exemption is Disney’s Zootopia 2, which has now grossed north of $500 million in the territory to become the No. 2 film of all time behind Avengers: Endgame, unadjusted. Fire and Ash could certainly share in that same good will; the first Avatar ultimately grossed $276 million, followed by $246 million for Way of Water.
Cameron is a huge proponent of 3D systems, as well as a devotee of Imax cameras and technology. He’s gone around the world plugging his new film, with plans for a fourth and fifth installments. ( His definition of “plan” may be up for debate.)
Avatar: Fire & Ash isn’t the only movie taking a seat at this year’s holiday feast. Paramount hopes to win over younger kids and families with The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants, while Lionsgate hopes enthrall femmes with Amanda Seyfried and Sydney Sweeney‘s R-rated thriller The Housemaid. The film, a throwback to 1990s, will be a key test for Sweeney following her failed Oscar hopeful, Christy, and is hoping for a launch in the $20 million to $25 million range. The Angel Studios animated feature David is also tracking $20 million to $25 range, while Sony’s Anaconda reboot also bows Dec. 25.
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