Melania is having trouble staying on the field at the Super Bowl weekend box office, where it is bracing itself for a steep decline and a possible tenth-place finish with $2.4 million, according to Friday returns. Others think it could finish slightly higher to come in ninth.
Amazon MGM Studios put out a statement Saturday stressing that the first lady’s documentary, directed by Brett Ratner, is already a win in for cinemas after opening to a better-than-expected $7.2 milion a week ago, the biggest launch in a decade for a doc (that excludes concert pics and nature films from Disney).
“Melania’s strong theatrical performance is a critical first moment that validates our wholistic distribution strategy, building awareness, engagement and provides momentum ahead of the film’s eventual debut on Prime Video,” Amazon MGM distribution chief Kevin Wilson said in Saturday’s note.
Melania Trump’s film — a behind-the-scenes chronicle of the 20 days before her husband’s second inauguration in 2025 — has sparked a barrage of headlines after being billed the most expensive doc ever made. In truth, no one knows the actual budget, since Amazon only paid for the license. Melania Trump reportedly pocketed $28 million, while Ratner certainly took a fee. Marc Beckman, the first lady’s longtime manager and producing partner, is another pivotal figure in the marking of Melania.
In a deal spanning the globe, Amazon MGM beat out other studios in plunking down $40 million in January 2025 for both theatrical and streaming rights to Melania and material for a docu-series. Team Melania was insistent on a proper, exclusive theatrical component, according to sources. Other bidders were only interested in the streaming rights, including Disney, which offered $14 million to $15 million. Amazon MGM spent another $35 million on the global marketing campaign. While the domestic portion was certainly more, the overseas push could have easily been $10 million to $15 million. So far, no international grosses have been reported by the studio, a sign that it isn’t doing much business in the 20-plus countries where it’s playing.
As far as North America, the filmmakers and Amazon MGM were so enthusiastic after last weekend’s opening that they added 200 theaters heading into Super Bowl weekend. Through Friday, the film’s domestic total stood at $11.8 million after placing ninth for the day with $865,000.
Melania‘s streaming date has yet to be announced, but insiders insist it will not go to Prime as early as next weekend. But it’s likely to be relatively quickly, since it would benefit Amazon to get two marketing campaigns for the cost of one. Also, a movie can still do business in theaters when it debuts in the home — provided a theater operator doesn’t need Melania‘s screens for another title with more potential.
“Together, theatrical and streaming represent two distinct value creating moments that amplify the film’s overall impact. Audience response is already validating this approach, with exit data showing strong intent to rewatch on Prime Video and meaningful interest in the forthcoming docuseries,” Wilson said. “That interest is further amplified by the theatrical marketing halo we consistently see drive increased awareness and viewership once films launch on Prime Video, reinforcing long-term value across the movie’s entire lifecycle.”
Critics have ravaged Melania, which currently has an eight percent score on Rotten Tomatoes among reviewers (it was at six percent for much of last week). The audience score has consistently stood at 99 percent, prompting a raft of stories suggesting that bots were responsible for what’s possibly the biggest gap in the history of Rotten Tomatoes.
Things got so noisy that the website had to weigh in: “There has been NO manipulation on the audience reviews for the Melania documentary. Reviews displayed on the Popcornmeter are VERIFIED reviews, meaning it has been verified that users have bought a ticket to the film through Fandango.”
Box office pundits add that fan-event movies often have higher-than-usual audience scores.
Super Bowl weekend is generally one of the slowest in terms of the year because of Sunday’s big game. The major studios generally avoid opening a movie, explaining why an eclectic mix of indie movies are invading the multiplex this weekend, including a glut of horror titles and a new K-pop concert pic, Stray Kids: The dominATE Experience, from Bleecker Street and Crosswalk.
The dominATE Experience topped Friday’s chart with $3 million, but Disney and 20th Century’s acclaimed Send Help is expected to enjoy a repeat win (it grossed another $2.8 million Friday) with $8 million to $10 million. Otherwise, many of the other titles in the top 10 were in such a close race that there was no clarity as to what the final weekend order will be.
A full box office report will follow Sunday.
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