Cinemark has been upgraded to buy, from neutral, with a $30 price target, by Wall Street research firm MoffettNathanson as new Dune, Spider-Man and Avengers franchise releases are headed to the multiplex in 2026.
“The upcoming year is stronger on most dimensions. That greater strength is borne out by strong early returns for marketing/trailer views, a valuable leading indicator,” MoffettNathanson analyst Robert Fishman predicted in a Jan. 20 investors note titled “Here Come the Sluggers.” The firm estimates that “that seven films will eclipse the $300 million mark (up from six in 2025), while 17 films will fall between $100 million and $300 million (up from 13 in 2025).”
And while “uncertainty” around theatrical demand and financial risk persists after an underwhelming 2025 box office performance for exhibitors, Fishman argued investors overshot after a recent pullback in Cinemark’s share price as the second-largest exhibitor has an improved balance sheet and “greater financial flexibility than peers.”
The exhibition business has fallen out of favor with investors in recent years over fears film lovers will increasingly bypass the local multiplex to view content on streaming platforms in their homes.
“2025 was supposed to be the first ‘normal’ year post COVID. It wasn’t. This disappointment, combined with renewed supply-side uncertainty around the pending Warner Bros. sale, has weighed on sentiment and pushed (Cinemark) shares down towards their lowest level since mid-2024,” Fishman said of the market backdrop for the company’s stock.
He argued, however, Cinemark is better placed than industry peers to benefit from 2026 meeting Hollywood box office expectations. “While a stronger top of the slate alone will not resolve the structural challenges facing theatrical, (Cinemark) is priced at an attractive entry point with a much improved balance sheet to ramp on capital returns as well as take advantage of opportunistic M&A,” Fishman wrote.
The MoffettNathanson analyst also lifted his price target for Cinemark share from $29 to $30 to reflect a “more favorable release environment for Hollywood.” Fishman argued the “waning influence of franchises in driving attendance” at cinemas was underlined by the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a key box office driver over the decades and one that showed “fatigue” in 2025 with releases like Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts.
This year could tell another story, Fishman argued: “Looking at the cast lined up to return to the MCU in this year’s Avengers film — including Robert Downey Jr., Chris Evans and Patrick Stewart, among many others confirmed and unconfirmed-but-rumored – we remain confident that this year’s Avengers and Spider-Man releases will mark a return to form for the MCU at the box office.”
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