Timothée Chalamet’s tears haven’t even been dry-cleaned off the red carpet, and I’m already talking about next year’s Oscars.
But the truth is mapping the road to the Academy Awards is a 12-month-long racket. Sometimes even more than that.
For instance, “CODA,” the 2022 Best Picture winner, premiered in the 2021 Sundance Film Festival, which takes place in January — a whole 14 months before the Oscars.
And while Fall festivals — Venice, Telluride and Toronto — remain popular breeding grounds for Best Picture contenders, in recent years Spring has really sprung.
“Parasite,” the 2020 top dog, bowed at the 2019 Cannes Film Festival. And “Anora,” the 2025 recipient, debuted there in 2024. This year’s all-important French fete is just two months away in May. No doubt some hot prospects will say “Bonjour!” on the Croissette.
And inevitably some of these titles will go poof. This time last year everybody assumed we’d see “Wicked: For Good” and “Jay Kelly” at the Dolby Theater. Whoops. Not everyone deserves the chance to fly.
For now, here are some films with buzz and/or prestige credentials that we could be bickering about into next March.
“The Odyssey”
For Christopher Nolan — the Oscar-winning director of half of #Barbenheimer — size matters. He has followed up his Best Picture winner “Oppenheimer” with a huge take on Homer’s ancient Grecian “Odyssey.” Star Matt Damon even compared the experience on set to what it must have been like working with David Lean — the director of “Lawrence of Arabia.” Two of Nolan’s last three movies (“Oppenheimer,” obviously, and “Dunkirk”) made it into Best Picture. Terrible “Tenet,” lucky for him, is a forgotten relic of the pandemic, like “Tiger King.” Damon leads a cast including Tom Holland, Anne Hathaway, Robert Pattinson, Lupita Nyong’o, Zendaya and Charlize Theron.
“Josephine”
A powerful drama starring Gemma Chan and Channing Tatum about a little girl who witnesses a sexual assault in a San Francisco park and then is haunted by her memory of it won both the US Dramatic and Audience Award at this year’s Sundance. That’s a potent mix. Past Best Picture nominees “Whiplash” and “Minari” pulled off the same double-whammy. Tatum is terrific as Josephine’s protective dad, but Mason Reeves, who was just eight-years-old during filming, is astonishing. It’s hard to say how old this pre-Wikipedia-page performer will be by next March, but Quvenzhané Wallis (“Beasts of the Southern Wild”) — the youngest Best Actress nominee ever — got in at just nine. That said, this year’s Sundance Oscars representative “Train Dreams” was picked up at the fest by Netflix. “Josephine” was bought by untested young distributor Sumerian Pictures.
“Dune: Part Three”
True, another threequel, “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” didn’t make it into Best Picture this year. But nobody really knows when that dazzling blue-alien franchise will call it quits. That this is definitely the final chapter in director Denis Villeneuve’s epic science-fiction trilogy gives it more of a “Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” vibe. There is a lot of goodwill for the “Dune” movies in Hollywood — especially among directors. Speaking of “Avatar,” James Cameron recently slammed the Academy’s director’s branch for not nominating Villeneuve for “Part Two.” Steven Spielberg called that same movie “brilliant.” What of star Timothée Chalamet? As evidenced by the end of the last film, he’ll have much more acting to do in the closer — but perhaps the Academy will want to give the weirdly controversial three-time nominee some time off.
“Wild Horse Nine”
Finally, an easy title to say. Director Martin McDonagh’s last two films, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and “The Banshees of Inisherin,” both notched well-deserved Best Picture nods. And “Three Billboards” won two acting trophies: Best Actress for Frances McDormand and Supporting Actor for Sam Rockwell. It’s pretty safe to assume that this thriller set in 1973 Chile will follow a similar path, what with heavy hitters Rockwell, John Malkovich, Steve Buscemi and Parker Posey in the cast.
“Digger”
Director Alejandro Iñárritu’s last movie, 2022’s “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths,” was a disaster — even though it squeezed in a nomination for Best Cinematography. But count out the Best Picture-winning director of “Birdman,” “The Revenant” and “Babel” at your peril. “Digger” has a stacked cast including Tom Cruise, Sandra Hüller, Jesse Plemons and Michael Stuhlbarg. If all goes well, Cruise is a likely Best Actor contender.
“The Social Reckoning”
When “The Social Network” came out in 2011 — and had a decent run at Best Picture before “The King’s Speech” knocked it out — who would’ve thought the witty, sexy Facebook flick would get a sequel? Now, fifteen years later comes “The Social Reckoning.” Aaron Sorkin returns to write and direct this time. No more David Fincher. But “Anora” Best Actress winner Mikey Madison and Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckerberg should make this one a talker.
“Michael”
This one will give me months of column fodder! “Michael” is the first major biopic about the late King of Pop Michael Jackson, starring none other than his nephew Jafar Jackson. You might have heard that Michael was quite a controversial guy, with allegations of sexual abuse against children directed at him for years. “Michael,” directed by Antoine Fuqua, supposedly will address that queasy topic. “As a filmmaker, I look to humanize but not sanitize and present the most compelling, unbiased story I can capture in a single feature film and let the audience decide how they feel after watching it,” producer Graham King told Variety. Jackson’s daughter Paris, meanwhile, called the script, “sugar-coated.” Will drama overwhelm what is a very popular genre at the Oscars — the real-life musician story? Eh. On Broadway, actor Myles Frost won the Tony Award for playing Michael in 2022.
“Jack of Spades”
The Coen Brothers, now separated, have been unpredictable of late. Together, they gave us a filmography so long, rich and award-winning, I feel guilty just naming a few: “No Country for Old Men,” “Fargo,” “Burn After Reading,” “O, Brother, Where Art Thou?”. Split up, well, Ethan directed the awful “Drive-Away Dolls” and “Honey, Don’t!”. And Joel delivered the far better “The Tragedy of Macbeth” with Denzel Washington and Frances McDormand. But, being as that was a black-and-white Shakespeare adaptation, it didn’t exactly set the world ablaze. Still, I have high hopes for Joel’s “Jack of Spades,” with Josh O’Connor, McDormand, Damian Lewis and Lesley Manville.
“Project Hail Mary”
Since expanding the Best Picture field to 10 nominees, the Oscars often make room for a popcorn blockbuster that captures the popular imagination. This $250-million Amazon space adventure starring Ryan Gosling as a scientist-astronaut tasked with saving Earth from extinction got stellar reviews and is primed to do big box office. Gosling’s presence alone brings to mind “Barbie,” which scored eight nods in 2024. Call it Ken-ergy.
“Fjord”
A possible Cannes title that could enter the fray soon is “Fjord,” starring award season favorites Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”) and Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”). Directed by Romanian Cristian Mungiu, it’s about a family that moves to a remote Norwegian village and becomes embroiled in controversy. Foreign films broadly about homes with baggage do well with the Academy (“Parasite,” “Sentimental Value,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” “The Zone of Interest”). Indie distributor Neon (“Parasite,” “Anora,” “Triangle of Sadness”) picked up the rights and will surely give it a big push.
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