As of 1 p.m. ET on Friday, March 13, 2026, $54.8 million had been bet on the Oscars on prediction-market website Kashi. At about the same hour, on competitor Polymarket, $61.4 million was already on the line(s). Bets will grow “exponentially” over the weekend, a Kalshi rep tells The Hollywood Reporter.
Among the top prop bets on Kalshi, “Who will attend the Oscars?” has a lot of action. There, you can choose the locks, like Heated Rivalry star Hudson Williams (he’s already been reported as attending, for some reason), One Battle After Another star Leonardo DiCaprio, or Kylie Jenner, who is Timothée Chalamet’s (Marty Supreme) partner.
Zendaya is another probable attendant, perhaps as a presenter or to support partner Tom Holland in his Marvel Cinematic Universe reunion — or both. Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Olivia Jade (Jacob Elordi’s partner), Hailee Steinfeld (not a nominee, but a star of the heavily-nominated Sinners), Ryan Gosling, Margot Robbie, Connor Storrie (Heated Rivalry), Kevin Hart, and Taylor Swift are less likely seat fillers, in exactly that descending order.
A newer market has opened on Kalshi covering what Academy Awards host Conan O’Brien will mention from the stage. “Hollywood” and Chalamet are the slam dunks, with Netflix, Warner Bros., and AI all more likely than not to be uttered. Hulu, “podcast,” Jeffrey Epstein, President Trump, ICE, and Will Smith are also on the board, with probabilities lowering respectively. You’ll remember why Smith might be somewhat top of mind each time the Oscars come back around.
The awards-allergic Penn may want to actually attend this show. The best supporting actor markets on both sites bring good news for Penn at the expense of Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value). There was a time when Skarsgård looked like an OK bet, but present-day is not that time (not betting advice, but if you’d like to use THR‘s handicapping…).
Best supporting actress is another hot market right now. Amy Madigan for Weapons is the fave, but not in runaway fashion. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) is within striking distance — she and Madigan actually flipped positions on March 1, when Madigan won at the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards). Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners is sort of the dark horse, odds-wise, here — but she’s in a much better spot than she was just three weeks ago, before winning at the BAFTAs.
Best actor is where most of the new bets are landing (followed by best picture, which heavily favors One Battle After Another). You’ve got Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) out in front of Chalamet — a big switch thanks again in large part to the Actor Awards. Poor Leo is a long, long shot, and his odds just continue to decrease.
How seriously should we take these predictions markets? Well, their sheer scale should help instill some confidence. There is strength in numbers, particularly when dealing with, well, numbers. And when dealing with money, a large portion of the bettors do their research, taking their cues from experts like THR‘s Scott Feinberg.
For the most part, users of both Polymarket and Kalshi did an excellent job predicting this year’s Oscar nominees. They whiffed on supporting actor nominee Delroy Lindo’s Sinners performance (in favor of Paul Mescal in Hamnet). In the best actress category, Kalshi bettors incorrectly chose Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another) over nominee Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue).
In supporting actress, Polymarket went with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) and Kalshi users name-checked Odessa A’zion (Marty Supreme) — someone needs to show them Elle Fanning’s Sentimental Value performance. Otherwise, bettors on both sites nailed the big categories — we’ll find out on Sunday night if they wagered as well when it counts.
Read the full article here
