To my recollection, the last time average HDB resale prices recorded a quarterly fall was when Flappy Bird was still on every phone, and people unironically said that Instagram was dead because of Vine.
That’s how long ago it was.
This was the years between 2013 and 2018 – zero Cash Over Valuation (COV) was the norm faced by buyers, and some analysts used words like “moribund” to describe the HDB market.
It’s taken until 2026 to see a faint echo of that market dynamic. For the first time since 2019, HDB resale prices have declined on a quarterly basis. Now it is a small movement to be sure – just 0.1per cent in Q1 2026 – but what matters is that we’ve seen five consecutive quarters of slower or no price growth.
One of the biggest causes of this is the incoming wave of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP). Around 13,400 units are expected to enter the resale market this year, roughly double the number in 2025, and there are even larger tranches of resale-eligible flats expected in 2027 and 2028.
The numbers are especially high in some neighbourhoods. I mentioned Punggol North Shore as one example in June of last year, but recently, we saw the impact play out in Tampines. Both Pinery Residences and Rivelle Tampines sold over 90per cent of their units at launch. I’m convinced that one contributing factor was HDB upgrader demand in the area: about 2,100 to 2,200 flats in Tampines alone are reaching their MOP in 2026, making it one of the top contributors of resale flats for the year (alongside Punggol and Queenstown).
In any case, most market analysts still expect resale prices to increase in 2026 on a yearly basis, but now at a much slower pace of up to around 5per cent (previously some projections rose as high as 7per cent).
Beyond the rising supply of new MOP flats, I wonder if we’re beginning to see the first stirrings of the Plus and Prime flat categorisations taking effect.
To be clear, it’s still early days yet, and there’s nothing conclusive for now. But with the introduction of Plus and Prime flats, home buyers have access to more centrally located projects (both in terms of being near the city centre, as well as being near neighbourhood hubs) without having to turn to the resale market.
While there are drawbacks to Plus and Prime flats – such as the 10-year MOP – these impact investor-oriented buyers more than homeowners. In practice, the downsides haven’t been a major deterrent: Plus and Prime projects are almost always oversubscribed, showing that buyers will accept the stricter restrictions.
But while the issue of new public housing supply seems resolved for now, financing struggles may loom for some buyers.
Not everyone is able to get an HDB Concessionary Loan for their flat. For various reasons, some buyers have to use bank loans. And unlike HDB loans, which have stayed at 2.6per cent interest per annum* for decades, private home loans fluctuate.
*The HDB loan rate is not actually “fixed” at 2.6per cent. The rate is pegged at 0.1per cent above prevailing CPF interest rates. But because the CPF rate hasn’t changed in decades, it’s often treated as if it’s fixed.
As Christine Sun, Chief Researcher and Strategist at OrangeTee Group, noted in the linked report, higher energy costs could contribute to an uptick in price inflation and delay the timeline for interest rate cuts (this is related to the situation in the Middle East).
It’s not so much that interest rates will spike again, but that a prolonged conflict means they may not come down as quickly as many buyers originally expected.
This should also be of interest to those who currently have HDB loans but have been considering switching to private bank loans.
In recent years, we’ve seen periods when some SORA-pegged loans fell below the HDB loan rate of 2.6per cent. For some homeowners, this may have raised the issue of whether they should switch to using the bank; lower rates meant lower monthly repayments.
More from Stacked
We Analysed Dual-Key Condo Units Across 2, 3 and 4 Bedders – And One Clear Pattern Emerged
Dual-key units have been an interesting property type to watch recently. Previously, we noted that dual-key units appeared to move…
Given the change in the macro-economic situation, it may be a good time to consider that you can refinance your HDB loan into a bank loan, but the reverse isn’t true. In a lower-rate environment, that switch can seem appealing. But with rates potentially staying higher for longer, now might be a time to have a longer conversation with a mortgage broker.
This article was first published in Stackedhomes.
Read the full article here
